May’s job report shows the beginning of the end for the recovery
Summary: First, the good news: the May number was awful but probably noise. Then the bad news: job growth is slowing fast. It’s the among last economic metrics to roll over, suggesting that we’re...
View ArticleThe mystery of the US economy at stall speed
Summary: Since 2012 the idea of a “stall speed” to the economy played a prominent role the almost incessant predictions of an imminent recession. Since then the US has cruised at or below stall speed...
View ArticleECRI explains the global slowdown, and what lies ahead
Summary: The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), who correctly predicted the slow recovery, looks at the multi-year slowing in the economies of the developed nations — its causes (the world is...
View ArticleWhat you haven’t been told about the July jobs report
Summary: Another jobs report, more clickbait headlines about the monthly noise. Here’s a look beneath the glitz to the important news. The US economy continues slow steady growth, with continued signs...
View ArticleWWI warns us about markets’ ability to see the future
Summary: Confidence rules America, with US markets at or near record high valuations and Team Trump expanding our wars. Time for a reminder that our ability to predict events is small, which means...
View ArticleAbout the coming recession
This month's sharp drop in stock prices has raised fears about the US economy. Are they warranted? Is the expansion "old"? Can we predict the next recession? See the answers you won't find in the news.
View ArticleA look at the US economy, and the next recession
Trump's mad efforts to start trade wars puts the US economy in danger. Much depends on the condition of the US economy.
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Trump & Clinton ignore America’s too-slow economic growth. We can change that!
Tweet Summary: Slow economic growth is among the most serious problems afflicting America. It’s incontrovertible, expected to continue — with broad and ill effects. Too bad neither of our major...
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COVID-19 will hit world economy hard. Here’s how.
Tweet Summary: Now that the COVID-19 epidemic is spreading beyond China (while China’s containment efforts are succeeding), let’s look at its likely effects on the world economy. We have to tools to...
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Prepare now for a coming COVID-19 depression
Tweet Summary: A recession is certain. Unless the epidemic breaks soon, a depression seems likely. Lessons from history tell us how to fight it. But much of our experience is irrelevant and we must...
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